Hi sixling,
Without IVF, there will be a statistical 25% chance of having a child with all 4 alpha genes deleted. This is known as hydrops fetalis. In most cases, the fetus dies in the third trimester because it cannot produce any useful hemoglobin. In some rare cases, a child has been saved while in the womb with in utero transfusions. These children are transfusion dependent after birth and have a condition similar to beta thal major, but unlike with beta thal major, there is no possibility that the baby can survive birth without intervention while still in the womb. The only way to avoid this chance is to go through IVF, where only embryos that don't carry the alpha deletion would be used. Because both you and Jerry carry the same type of deletion, there is no possibility of the child having 3 gene deletion HbH disease.
25% may seem to be a low risk but when the child inherits the deletions from both parents the odds don't matter and we see so much of this in parents who took the risk with beta thal and ended up with a major child, that I have to say you really should not risk it. IVF is the only real solution. I realize that no parent wants to hear this but it is far better to be informed of the possibilities so that the tragedy of a stillbirth can be avoided. The health of the mother also needs to be taken into account and there is some risk with pregnancies where the fetus has all 4 alpha genes deleted. For a thorough review, see
http://bloodjournal.hematologylibrary.org/cgi/content/full/91/7/2213There is an increased incidence of serious maternal complications in these pregnancies. It is likely that the placentomegaly is one important causative factor. It was estimated that half of these women could die from complications resulting from these pregnancies if there was no medical care.10 In a study of 46 women who were pregnant with affected fetuses, 61% developed hypertension during pregnancy, of whom half developed severe pre-eclampsia.5 Polyhydramnios was present in 59% of the cases. Eleven percent suffered antepartum hemorrhage as a result of either unknown cause or placenta previa. Other less common complications included disseminated intravascular coagulation, renal failure, and pleural effusion. Oligohydramnios, abruptio placenta, premature labor, and congestive heart failure have also been reported.53,54,58
The mean gestation at delivery was 31 weeks with a range of 24 to 38 weeks.5 Malpresentation of the infant during births occurred in 37% of the cases. Thirty-eight women delivered vaginally, 10 of whom experienced difficulty including 3 necessitating paracenteses to decrease fetal ascites to facilitate delivery. Caesarean section was performed in 8 women. Post-partum complications include retained placenta, hemorrhage, life-threatening hypertension, puerperal pyrexia, and anemia.
I wish I could give you a different answer but as I said, it is best to be properly informed. IVF is costly and may take several attempts but it is the only way you can go into a pregnancy without taking this 25% chance. To me, the odds are meaningless because I know too many families where the 25% chance of having a beta thal major resulted in 2-4 majors in the family.